Happy Spook-day everyone! Hope you’re Halloween was filled with devilish deeds and horrific nightmares!

• Markets not scared, climb again
  The markets were not scared this Halloween and had a slow yet positive day. The Dow climbed 144 points, FTSE100 was up 85 points, CAC40 went up 80 points and the DAX climbed 118. The IBEX also worked up a 293 point addition but the TSX lost 93 points and the Nikkei also recorded a minus of a rather large 452 points. However, oil rose slightly, back up to around $65/barrel. This capped off a month of volatility, the most erratic month on Wall Street in 24 years, with major losses recorded for the month. 

• EU to deliver aid to Congo
  As a truce remained in place in Congo today, France and England announced an initiative on behalf of the EU to secure peace in Congo and may fly in food for tens of thousands soon. Javier Solana made the announcement about possible food aid in affected regions while the UK and France dispatched their foreign ministers, David Milliband and Bernard Kouchner respectively, on a mission to Congo. However, EU diplomats have said any European involvement in the conflict would be merely humanitarian rather than military. At least the world took notice and made a first step.

• Obama goes into final weekend with momentum
  Obama entered the final weekend of the elections with news that his appearance on the Daily Show with John Stewart had set a new audience record. 3.6 million viewers on average turned in to see Obama’s comedic chops, beating the show’s previous record of 3.0 million viewers, a record set earlier this month when Michelle Obama appeared on the show. Public interest in the future First Family appears to be increasing. The Clinton family, Al Gore, Joe Biden and other Democratic heavyweights are also scheduled to appear on the trail this weekend in the hotly contended toss-up states. Further, the campaign has announced it is buying airtime in quite a few “red” states like Georgia and Arizona, McCain’s own home state, forcing him to play defense and spread his resources thin. Obama also warned that things will get nasty in the next four days and that this election is far from over, with Al Gore complementing him by adding: “Take it from me, every vote matters”. 

• DSi coming next summer
  Nintendo, the Japanese video game manufacturer, has said it will most likely launch the DSi, a new version of the popular handheld DS video game player, sometime in the summer of 2009 to its oversees markets. Having handily beat Sony’s PSP and PS3 in sales with the DS and Wii console, Nintendo is looking capitalize on its momentum as DS sales have started to flatline. 

• Hubble hobbling no more
  The Hubble telescope has once again begun taking pictures of similar quality as it did before it entered sleep-mode last month. A recent picture of a pair of galaxies 450 million light years away provided enough proof for NASA scientists to be hopeful of Hubble’s ability to continue its operations at full efficiency until its scheduled replacement, the James Webb Telescope, will be launched in 2013. 

• Markets rise slowly
  The Dow rose a modest 189 points with the FTSE going up 49 points, the CAC holding on par and the DAX up 60 points. The IBEX also reported a gain of 172 points, the TSX rose over 380 points but the Nikkei dropped 260 points. This comes on the heels of Japan announcing a $275 billion package for its economy and news that the US economy shrank at a 0.3% annual rate in the third quarter posting its biggest drop in consumer spending since 1980. Oil also dropped back down to $62/barrel. 

• Series of bombs rock India
  Reuters reports that a series of 11 bombs detonating in quick succession has teared through Assam, a northeaster state in India. 68 people have been reported dead along with another 335 injured. The attacks were blamed on Islamist militants from neighbouring Bangladesh.  

• For one night only, Obama and Clinton steal the show
  Bill Clinton and Barack Obama put their differences aside to appear at a late night rally where the former president told the crowd exactly what they wanted to hear. President Clinton said all the right things and gave off all the right signals in the first joint campaign appearance with Obama, and probably the last. This is part of Obama’s final push towards winning the presidency with only a few days to go until voters get to enter the booth. 

• Climate skeptics take another hit
  A new climate change study shows that both the Arctic and Antarctica are getting less icy due to global warming. The new findings were reported in the Nature Geoscience journal where it is also mentioned that if both poles were to melt, world sea levels would increase by up 70 meters. This comes a day after the WWF launched a warning saying that two planets are required to sustain the current lifestyle within a generation! It is a strong possibility that we may witness an environmental disaster within our lifetime if the attitudes towards the earth and the climate do not drastically change.

• Phillies win World Series
  The Philadelphia Phillies have won Major League Baseball’s World Series. They beat the Tampa Bay (formerly Devil) Rays in 5 games, winning the last one after a 2 day rain suspension. It is their first World Series title in 25 years. This latest feat further strengthens the notion that money is not everything in sports.

• NBA season tips off
  The NBA season has tipped off once again, with the favourites to win it all this year being the Kobe Bryant-led Los Angeles Lakers. Defending champs Boston will also be among the favourites along with the usual contenders in San Antonio and Dallas. The Lakers won their opener but San Antonio dropped a game at Phoenix. On a personal note, the Toronto Raptors won their opener away in Philadelphia sporting their new black and red away jerseys. Go Raps!

• Maradona to become Argentina’s football coach
  Diego Maradona, the famous football legend will be named his national team’s manager despite having no managerial or coaching experience. Maradona’s troubled life and career has seen him going from World Cup champion and winning the FIFA Player of the Century award to sharing cigars with Fidel Castro and being banned for cocaine addiction and suffering an overdose from it. Talk about a controversy! 

• Markets rise, US and China cut rates
  Oil rose to $66/barrel and most international markets had a good day. The Dow closed down only 70 points, but the FTSE100 was up 316 points, the CAC up 287 points, IBEX up a whopping 744 points and the Nikkei up 289 points. The DAX dropped slightly by 14 points but the TSX rose almost 350 points, closing over 9 500 points. This followed the announcement that the US and Chinese central banks cut their lending interest rate with more cuts expected to follow from other countries, furthering a global effort to help financial institutions weather the current crisis. 

• Obama pays $5 million for ad, gains in electoral map
  It is estimated that Barack Obama will fork out nearly $5 million for a 30-minute for a primetime spot on major American broadcasting agencies to help him deliver his “closing argument”. The 30-minute piece, labeled by many as an infomercial or a very expensive ad, will air on CBs, NBC, Msnbc, Fox, etc with CNN and ABC choosing not to air it. This is viewed by many analysts as a brilliant political move by Obama to ensure he stays in the news-cycle and reaches many independent voters still looking for a reason to cast their ballot for him. CNN also reported that Obama’s lead in many swing-states has increased, further increasing his lead in electoral votes. History is only a few days away. 

• Earthquake kills 170 in Pakistan
  170 have been reported dead and over 15 000 left homeless after a strong earthquake of 6.2 on the Richter scale hit a southwestern region of Pakistan. Relief efforts were underway but the death toll is expected to climb within the coming days. Adding to the economic crisis the country is in, the earthquake has left many people without homes with the government is asking for international aid and relief to help manage the humanitarian consequences. 

• US closes embassy in Syria
  Amid anti-US protests and security threats, the United States has decided to close down its embassy in Syria, according to CNN. Following last week’s incursion in Syrian territory following a terrorist raid, Syria has filed a protest with the UN. It has also fueled anti-American sentiments within the country prompting protests, demonstrations and even direct threats to American institutions within the country. Crossing international borders without permission in the aggressive manner the US has done throughout the Bush presidency is one of the many reasons the US is not popular on the international stage. 

• UN urges peace in Congo conflict
  As rebel leaders in Goma, a region of Congo, declared a temporary ceasefire, UN’s Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has called for an end to the crisis, stating that it was creating a “humanitarian catastrophe”. France, who holds the EU rotating presidency, has pledged 1 500 troops within 10 days in Europe’s name. Other countries within the EU have also stepped up and said they will try to help put an end to the conflict but have stopped short of offering troop support. The UN is attempting to ensure history will not repeat itself by playing a more active role compared to the Rwandan crisis from 1994. 

• Office 14 to include internet applications
  The new edition of Microsoft’s Office suite, aptly named Office 14 rumoured to be out sometime next year, will include many web-features, and possible a web-based version of the entire suite. This follows the success of other web-based applications introduced by Google and will further entice the competition between these two tech giants. 

• Markets rebound, oil up as well
  Most international markets began the day recuperating from yesterday’s losses as the Dow is currently up 400 points, FTSE100 up 70 poimts, the CAC 50 points and the DAX up an encouraging 490 points. The Nikkei also made it its losses from yesterday, now up 450 points and the TSX 320 points. Most markets were also on the rise at the time this post was published. Bargain hunting as well as a reliance on future rate cut from the Federal Reserve fed the surge today. Oil was also up to $63, reacting to demand and the effect of the production cuts by OPEC. 

• Obama still up, one week till election day
  Obama still maintains a solid lead in most national polls today, furthering the point that John McCain is quickly running out of time. With one week left, the Reuters/Zogby political map have Obama safely leading with 255 electoral votes while McCain only counts around 127 in his safe column. Another 156 are in play with 51 leaning Democrat. Only 270 electoral votes are needed to win the election.  

• Zimbabwe talks at an impasse, Congo region still messy
  More talks at the SADC meeting in Harare have failed to reach an agreement between the two power-sharing parties in Zimbabwe. It is quite stunning how with the many problems in the country, they can still quarrel over a few relatively unimportant cabinet positions for this long. Also, more news out of Congo further illustrates the worsening situation there with rebel fighters taking control of more villages and the number of deaths increasing. Does anybody really care enough to make a difference though?

• Iceland raises interest rate to 18% (no, its not a typo)
  CNN announced that Iceland’s central bank has raised its key interest rate a whopping 6 percentage points, bringing it up to 18%. Currency devaluation is the main cause as a higher interest rate will help attract foreign investors. This was also one of the conditions that Iceland agreed with the IMF for a $2 billion loan. Prime Minister Geir Haarde said that his country may require an additional $4 billion in help on top of that loan. Yikes!

• Tech giants release human rights guidelines
  Technology giants Google, Microsoft, and Yahoo have jointly begun an initiative to promote free expression, privacy and human rights. This comes after intense pressure from advocacy groups and a two year plan on a potential coalition and a plan of actin. All three companies have been accused of violating international human rights relating to privacy and freedom of expression when complying with demands of the Chinese government. This is a step in the right direction as more positive initiatives need to be promoted in order to continue an improvement of online etiquette.

• Microsoft testing Windows 7
  The New York Times announces that Microsoft will today give out test copies of its new operating system, Windows 7. After a public trashing by Apple adverts, Vista will be dropped as a brand name and only Windows will remain. No details of the release date for Windows 7 are available as of yet. 

• Obama assassination plot fails
  Reports are coming out of many news outlets that an assassination attempt against Barack Obama has been thwarted by security officials. Two men, described as white supremacist skinheads, were arrested because of plans to kill the presidential candidate. While this is probably not a substantial threat with very little possibility of success, it does remind many people of the potential threats that Obama would face as president. Shrugging off the threat though, Obama continued campaigning in crucial states, beginning a phase where the “closing argument” is put forth by him. Most polls have him steadily leading McCain. 

• Markets drop slightly, Oil down as well
  Wall Street dropped to a 5-year low today as many world markets continued heading south. The Dow was down 200 points, FTSE100 only 30, CAC 120, and the Nikkei lost another whopping 480 points while the TSX also dropped 750 points. Recession fears combined with a lack of consumer confidence, volatility in foreign exchanges, as well as unstable international banks are at the core of this continued downward spiral. Oil also dropped again and is hovering around $60/barrel.  

• US confirms attack in Syria and gets denounced
  A US official confirmed yesterday that a military strike in Syria was indeed conducted in order to take down a suspected al-Queda terrorist. The Syrian foreign minister, Waleed Mouallem, in visit in London, England, strongly denounced the US for these latest attacks saying they violated international law and Syrian sovereignty. Let’s say the attacks were meant to take down an acknowledged terrorist, do they not still violate the law? Why does the law exist if powerful nations can simply break it without any consequences? 

• Congo conflict escalates
  Over 200 000 people have been displaced over the last two months due to escalating violence in Congo with over 45 000 people dying every month. The 5.4 million death toll since the conflict began in 1998 is staggering and is getting worse as UN peacekeeping forces are struggling to do battle with rebel fighters. The UN mission seems to be falling apart as it has too little forces and not enough equipment to protect civilians. Wouldn’t NATO or American forces be better suited to help out in conflicts such as this one? The world still hasn’t learned from Rwanda, Darfur, or Kenya. 

• Surfing internet found to alter brain
  Reuters reports that a neuroscientist at UCLA has released a study where the use of internet is shown to alter the way our brain works. Gary Small claims that this is a evolutionary change that will put technologically able individuals at the top of the social order. The use of internet and text messaging, he claims, makes brains more adept at filtering information and making snap decisions. I guess all those hours on MSN and Facebook weren’t in vain after all!

• Eminem is back
  Time has an interesting story about Eminem’s comeback. It highlights his upcoming track as well as his new album but it focuses on his autobiography, which is being released tomorrow. The book follows Marshall Mathers’ steps from a kid with a broken family to a world-wide icon. 

• World’s heaviest man holds wedding
  The world’s heaviest man, 43 year old Manuel Uribe, who once weighed in at 560 kgs in 2006 had a happy wedding in front of cameras and 400 guests in Mexico. Since his weight record, he has dropped up u 250 kilograms. This proves that happiness and love is more than just looks and physical appearance. 

The first ever submission to The Social Verdict is here and it is a direct response to the a previous article titled The World Needs a President Obama. The author wished to remain anonymous so there will be no BY line. Big thanks to the author. Feel free to comment and keep the posts coming! 

Ideals aside, a President Obama will not solve the world’s problem

These are curious times. America faces big problems and a big choice. Whether it is Obama or McCain, the victor will be faced with an uphill challenge. It is an uncontested fact that America is not moving in the right direction. Further, and perhaps more debatable, where America leads, the rest of the world usually follows.  

For conceptual clarity, the terms “Obama” and “President Obama” will be used interchangeably. There is no need to distinguish the two. If Obama does not become President, then the argument will go no further. The holding of power is a staple requisite. Alternatively, if he is elected, he will be expected to use his personal abilities so to meet the Presidential ideas demanded of him.   

Let us start on a practical level. If Obama is to attempt to resolve some of the world’s problems, then surely his first task will be putting America back on track. Clearly, there is no point arguing he can resolve global issues if he cannot deal with the raw issues at home. This is, after all, his electoral mandate. With this in mind, let us examine some of the issues he faces.  

Firstly, Wall Street is not in a settled place. Irresponsible lending by institutions such as Fanny Mae and Freddie Mack provide the foundations for trouble. It is simple logic that if creditors cannot get their investments back, this will ultimately lead to the downfall of the creditor. The problem is further amplified by inter-lending between financial institutions in a frivolous manner. As one financier said, it has not been uncommon for no one to know who was in charge of a debt, or who was actually holding the assets in question. The complexities of the financial crisis are not in issue here. However, we have outlined the problem America faces, and as such, a problem which a President Obama would need to rectify.  

The next problem is the American housing market. Coupled to the liberal lending ideology, house builders could not resist the urge of throwing up thousands of houses to make a quick profit. But what is the point of building a house? Surely the answer is to provide a home for individuals. The common phrase that something is said to be “as safe as houses”, does not hold true if we forget this basic principle. In America, house building has become a money making tool. Supply now outstrips demand. The house market has become knotted with the financial market. Potential home owners do not buy houses because they cannot get the capital. Coupled to this, the very companies depended on a housing bubble can no longer get the credit, nor can they sell the houses they have built. The result is collapse.  

A third and perhaps most important problem is a downturn in the American economy. Today it was announced on BBC news that there are fears one of America’s car giants will fail. Buying new expensive purchases, such as cars, are hardly high on the list of the average American in light of the circumstances. These “icons of the American dream” are on dodgy ground, having proved less successful against their Japanese rivals over the last ten years they may not survive the credit crunch “tsunami”.  Uncertainty is not only common at the top, workers too are worried. Boeing workers, worried about their future job prospects and outsourcing to China have caused revenue to fall by nearly ten percent at the company. These America icons are looking shaky, and whilst it would be too far to argue that America’s global economic dominance is under threat, they are not representing the “American dream” in the way they have previously. 

Evidently a President Obama has some big problems to solve. But according to the author, he may be able to solve them. After all, there is “no force that can stand up against fierce determination, passionate desire, and gut-wrenching hard work”. Obama can walk on water too, so rectifying a “tsunami” sized credit crunch shouldn’t be too challenging.  

What should be obvious from our brief exploration of key American problems is that Obama cannot and will not solve them. Obama cannot solve the financial crisis single handily. The financiers don’t even know where the assets are located. He cannot solve the oversupply in the housing market, and he cannot exert enough individual force to turn the economy around. Things are in equilibrium and things must play out. The excesses of ten years cannot be crossed out, merely by placing a cross in the ‘Obama box’.  

A counter may be propounded. No one is claiming that Obama can solve these problems. Rather Obama represents an ideology which the world needs. His overwhelming capability will mean other leaders will be “armed” with “innovating ideas and solutions” to face the problems individually. Through this, he will implement the change necessary to both the world and America back on track.

Unfortunately this response cannot work either.

Firstly, a President Obama has no basis to found such an ideology. As the most powerful world leader, he will be faced with great and new challenges. Electoral rhetoric, promise and spin all sound great, but until attempted execution of these promises, his leadership ability cannot be ascertained. Moreover, if we are forced to accept Obama cannot resolve the current downward trend, he will have a very slim basis to claim such an ideology.

On a practical level, if (as the author claims), the European Union, Russia and China are in politically resurgent positions; they are unlikely to accept solutions from a representative of a state which has “slipped down” the global ranks. 

Secondly, and most crucially, it will have been noticed the problems Obama faces in America are not just specific to America. They are global. Take Britain. We are facing a similar credit crunch, largely because the banking system is interlinked. Northern Rock has recently been nationalised, and the treasury has announced an enormous rescue package for the purpose of saving other lenders. Like America, our housing market is in free fall, and similarly our economy is looking shaky. It can be said with certainty that similar problems are faced in Germany, Iceland and elsewhere around the world.

Obama cannot solve America’s problems. It is not proven that he can lead the world to its desired solutions, or that they will bother to listen. We cannot claim, therefore, that the world needs him. Where America leads, the rest of the world follows. Currently that is, and will remain downwards. 

There is one last irony to address. The writer argues that a President Obama could reduce prejudice and polarization. He shall create a shift akin to that of Martin Luther King. Tolerance should prevail, and the mighty shall not prevail over the weak. In a daring assertion, the writer points out that Obama shall “lead the way towards a new world order”.  

This is all sizzle and no substance. In Britain we have experienced this. In 1997, we had our own “Obama”. Tony Blair. On his political ascendancy he was heralded as someone who would bring change. He would solve both our social problems at home, and further lay the foundations for a cohesive world. True, his work with Israel and Palestine on the Middle East Peace Process was proactive and largely positive. But do not forget Blair’s other great legacy; war with Iraq. This is not to argue that Obama will precipitate war. Rather, to argue that politicians who appear to represent peace and prosperity may not live up to their expectations. Even the most positive ambitions may be curtailed by the realities of office and power.

Unity, coherence and fairness are easy values to preach, but they are almost impossible to bring about either nationally or internationally, especially where states are under severe pressures. We only need to look at the battle between Iceland and the UK over protection of investor deposits. In particular, the UK took the extreme and aggressive measure of invoking the Crime Prevention and Terrorism Act to freeze landsbanki’s assets in this country.  

America is in dream and will remain so for the next couple of weeks. There are those who are already sold, cheering enthusiastically at the democratic conference, believing in change. Even those who are yet to decide are likely to get caught in the spin of the next few days. If there is an election of a black president this will undoubtedly be groundbreaking and a perfect signal of equality. Yet overall, we should exercise caution. The world does not need Obama because he cannot create the change he preaches. The realities of the last ten years must play out of their own accord. Vacuous ambition and promise, backed with little proof of success will not be enough to solve them.  

• IMF and Ukraine agree  on loan
  Reuters reports the International Monetary Fund has agreed to a $16.5 billion dollar loan package with the Ukraine in one of its first steps to help banks all over the world to deal with the financial crisis. A record low currency value combined with recent political turmoil have caused a severe drop in the country’s economy and the loans from the IMF will prove a significant short-term assistance.  

• Iran president suffering from exhaustion
  CNN reports that Iranian President Ahmadinejad has recently fallen ill from exhaustion. However, reports of the seriousness of the illness may be overstated and the effect of this illness on his future in Iranian politics may be inconsequential. Many have doubted Ahmadinejad’s political future as discontent among the population due to rising unemployment and a slowing economy have grown. 

• US forces suspected of crossing into Syria
  Time has a story where an attack on the Iraqi-Syrian border has resulted in 8 people dead and the accusation that US troops crossed over the border into Syrian territory. No comment was provided by the US military and no confirmation of the border crossing has been provided but another transgression of US forces into sovereign land cannot bode well for the country’s image 

• Obama lead drops, accused of taking victory laps
  In the latest reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll, Obama’s lead has shrunk to only 5 points. John Zogby attributes that drop in McCain tweaking his message over the last few days to focus on the economy. Obama has also been off the trail to visit his ill grandmother and has not had a chance to respond to claims thrown his way by the McCain camp. Additionally, McCain and Palin have dropped many of the character attacks in favour of claims that Obama already views the election as over and is now just taking victory laps instead of focusing on the issues.

• Twitter used by terrorists?
  Twitter, a micro blogging tool recently made popular, has been discovered as a possible threat where terrorists could use coordinate attacks. A draft Army intelligence report also describes “potential adversarial use of Twitter” with examples of the planning of ambushes and detonating of explosives. 

• Palin accused of being a diva! Really? No way!
  CNN has an article up on its site where Sarah Palin is accused of “going rogue” by McCain’s own camp. Sources within McCain’s camp have described her attitude as diva-like and go on to highlight a few situations where she has acted out. It seems that with the campaign winding down and chances of winning are growing smaller by the minute, Sarah Palin is looking out for her own political life, hoping to establish herself as a presumptive nominee 4 years from now. Now that is a scary thought for any Republican!

• Asia and Europe talk economy
  Time reports that European leaders have reached a consensus with their Asian counterparts on a way to deal with the global financial crisis. This plan will be taken to Washington on November 15th, will call on the IMF and other institutions to help stabilize banks and share prices. Recent speculation about possible strategies proposed by the EU have revolved around broad reform of international financial institutions and an agreement with Asian countries in this respect will put pressure on Washington to agree to more regulation and oversight, a move Washington may have reservations about.

• Floods hit Yemen
  58 people have been reported killed and over 20 000 have been left without shelter in a devastating wave of floods to hit Yemen. Severe rainfall, uncharacteristic for that part of the world, was caused by remnants of a tropical cyclone with parts of Somalia and even Saudia Arabia being affected.

• Elections coming up in Israel
  Tzipi Livni, leader of the Kadima party in Israel, has called off efforts to negotiate a coalition government and seems poised to call for early elections. Livni, who was selected as leader of her party after the resignation of Prime Minister Olmert, will most likely face two former Prime Ministers in the upcoming high-stakes elections, Ehud Barak and Benajmin Netanyaho.

• Iceland PM faces dim future
  Reuters reports that over 2 000 demonstrators took to the streets of Reykjavik, the capital of Iceland, to call for Prime Minister’s Geir Haarde’s resignation. The collapse of the entire Icelandic economy has caused social unrest, moving the country to push for early elections in order to speed up integration into the EU.

• Apple joins fight against same-sex marriage ban
  Apple has donated over $100 000 to fighting a proposed ban on same-sex marriages, known as Proposition 8. Apple, not known for its political ideology, is taking a stand in California, its home base, stating that a person’s “fundamental rights should not be affected by their sexual orientation”.